Where China-Europe ocean freight rates stand in the summer of 2026

As of 2 July 2026, Drewry's index puts the freight for a 40-foot container at 4,682 dollars from Shanghai to Rotterdam and 6,360 dollars from Shanghai to Genoa, up 7% and 10% respectively in a single week; the global composite across all major lanes stands at 4,530 dollars. That is the order of magnitude right now. But an index should be read for what it is: a market benchmark, not your invoice.

These are spot rates for a dry 40-foot container shipped FCL, a full container booked by the week. They include neither seasonal surcharges, nor the local charges at each end (port handling, documentation), nor the drayage to the quay, nor customs clearance on arrival. Your true landed cost adds all of that up; depending on the Incoterm you choose, part falls on the supplier and the rest on you.

Why this level in the summer of 2026? Two forces combine. First, peak season: European importers are rebuilding stock before autumn, demand is firm, and carriers are lifting their FAK rates and adding peak-season surcharges. Second, and above all, the Red Sea diversions: by mid-2026 most container ships are still avoiding the Suez Canal and routing around the Cape of Good Hope, which lengthens the Asia-Europe voyage by several days and ties up capacity. Industry consensus expects the diversions to hold at least into 2027. Industry estimates put Asia-Europe rates well above where they would sit without the crisis.

This market moves every week, sometimes by 10% from one Thursday to the next. Carriers manage supply closely: blank sailings to prop up rates, surcharges announced and sometimes postponed. That is why a spot rate read on one day binds no one the next. Large importers lock in annual contract rates, less dramatic on the way up or down; small volumes take the spot market head-on.

In the landed cost of an order, freight is only one line among several: customs duty, import VAT, and drayage at both ends all add to it. Its weight depends above all on how full the box is. On a full container of decent-value goods, freight per unit stays modest; on a small groupage (LCL) shipment, or on bulky, low-value products, it can weigh heavily and decide whether a product line pays. That is a calculation to run before ordering, not after.

In practice, when rates climb, three habits hold. Book early, ahead of the peak-season surges and ahead of the Chinese New Year shutdown, rather than in a rush. Compare FOB and DDP honestly for your volume: on small quantities, an all-in price can shelter you from a nervous market. And do not chase an index's exact figure: what matters is a firm forwarder quote for your goods, on your date.

Our job is not to speculate on freight, nor to sell you a forecast no one can keep. We work with several forwarders, we ask for real quotes on your lane and your volume, and we lock in what can be locked at the time of ordering. An index describes the weather over the market; it does not replace the invoice. We give you the second, costed, not just the first.