Freight before Chinese New Year 2027: when to book your container

The Spring Festival triggers the country's largest annual migration: Chunyun 2026 lasted 40 days, from 2 February to 13 March 2026, with 9.4 billion trips recorded by China's Ministry of Transport (CGTN, 13 March 2026). Workers leave before the holiday and return afterwards, and private companies often set their own schedule, beyond the official holiday (China Briefing, 12 May 2026).

Any goods that have not left the factory before the slowdown wait for the restart, which takes one to two weeks after the holiday according to Freightos (updated 22 September 2026). Everyone therefore ships within the same window, and this concentration strains sea and air capacity for a few weeks.

As of 29 September 2026, the State Council had not yet published the 2027 holiday dates for mainland China; the 2026 notice came out on 4 November 2025. Only Hong Kong has set its own: public holidays on 6, 8 and 9 February 2027 (Hong Kong government, 15 May 2026).

Across four years of data, Freightos observes a peak in importer activity three to four weeks before Lunar New Year: the peak week concentrates 16.9% of pre-holiday freight searches, 30% more than the previous week (Freightos, 24 December 2025). During this 'red zone' (20 to 26 January for the 17 February 2026 holiday), capacity tightens, rates rise above standard levels, and small shippers risk having their container pushed to the next vessel.

The rise starts as early as December. On 16 December 2025, Freightos noted an early start to pre-holiday orders, Asia-Mediterranean rates up 15% since early December, and carriers announcing general rate increases for mid-January. The same December rise pattern had been seen in 2023 and 2024, possibly in response to longer Red Sea transit times, according to Freightos.

The pullback comes before the holiday. The Drewry WCI fell 10% in the week of 22 January 2026, with Drewry describing the end of the pre-holiday rush (Container News, 24 January 2026); it had dropped 11% in the week of 23 January 2025, ahead of a holiday falling on 29 January. Blanked sailings follow: 136 in February 2026 across the transpacific, Asia-Europe and Mediterranean, and transatlantic trades according to Drewry, 122% more than in January, and 135,800 TEU already withdrawn on the Far East-North Europe route for the last week of February 2026 according to Xeneta (12 February 2026).

No source has yet published a 'red zone' for 2027. Applying the window observed by Freightos, the booking peak would fall around 9 to 16 January 2027: this is a calculation, not an announcement.

The scale changes from year to year. On 12 February 2026, Xeneta measured a Far East-North Europe spot rate of USD 2,350 per 40-foot container, down 17% since the start of the year. A year earlier, the winter of 2025, strained by the Red Sea, showed USD 5,640 on Asia-North Europe on 14 January 2025 according to Freightos. Xeneta advises setting rate targets on current data rather than on previous Chinese New Years.

There is no single cutoff date for Chinese ports. Each sailing has its own deadlines, set by the carrier and the terminal: CY cutoff for full container gate-in at the terminal, SI cutoff for documentation instructions. Since 1 July 2016, a full container cannot be loaded without a VGM, the verified gross mass, submitted before the cutoff (K Line, 21 April 2016).

The last sailings kept running are known late: for the 17 February 2026 holiday, Maersk announced on 23 December 2025 five blanked Asia-Europe sailings from Shanghai, Ningbo and Qingdao. As of 29 September 2026, we found no carrier announcement yet for the 2027 holiday. The right question is therefore: what is the last confirmed sailing for my cargo, and what is its CY cutoff?

Air freight rises later: on 17 February 2026, Freightos recorded China-North Europe air rates up 8% while ocean rates were falling.

The first lever is timing: Freightos recommends locking in quotations before the red zone. Booking early does not guarantee a low price, but it reduces the risk of ready goods sitting on the dock.

The second is the type of commitment. Some carriers sell spot space with guaranteed loading: Hapag-Lloyd has described, since January 2022, a fixed-rate offer with guaranteed loading on the booked sailing or within plus or minus two days of the confirmed departure, plus equipment guarantee. For regular volumes, a contract gives priority; check the minimum committed volumes, beyond which cargo reverts to spot. Finally, Freightos advises splitting into LCL groupage when a full container cannot depart as one block, and building in a contingency budget.

China-Europe trains ran without interruption during and after the 2026 holiday, according to the Global Times (26 February 2026), which cites goods carried from Hefei to Hamburg in around 20 days, against 35 days or more by sea. China Railway counted 352,100 TEU in January and February 2026, up 25.2% year on year (RailFreight, 20 March 2026).

Rail suits high-value goods, for which saving two weeks matters, and cargo that missed the last vessel. With no published, dated rail rates for this winter, price is quoted case by case, alongside the ocean quotation.

Under French law, the freight commission agent (commissionnaire de transport) organises transport in its own name and carries an obligation of result; the forwarder (transitaire) acts as an agent, on the client's instructions, with an obligation of means (Union maritime et fluviale). It is the forwarder who books space, tracks cutoffs, collects the VGM and documents, switches to rail or air if needed, and prepares customs clearance. Before Chinese New Year, it is judged on its ability to confirm an actual sailing early.

Sorva, an international sourcing and trading company from China to the world, with offices in Guangzhou and in France, works upstream. We confirm each factory's real end-of-production date, track production progress to aim for loading before the peak, and coordinate the booking with your forwarder or one of the forwarders we work with. In most cases you pay no fees: we take a commission on the ex-factory value of the goods negotiated.